Thursday, 09 December 2010 14:11
Njabulo Ncube, Assistant Editor
AS Washington goes into an over-drive to minimise the damage caused by the WikiLeaks 2007 cable that has spot-lighted the United State’s former Ambassador to Zimbabwe’s perceptions and reports on Zimbabwe, analysts say the damaging leaks are a god-send for ZANU-PF as it eyes fresh polls. Christopher Dell, the former US ambassador to Zimbabwe was last week exposed by the whistle-blowing website WikiLeaks.
\
Apart from confirming the US’s interest in the internal politics of Zimbabwe, Dell made startling revelations and comments about the country’s political leaders, specifically President Robert Mugabe, Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai, Deputy Prime Minister Arthur Mutambara and his secretary general Welshman Ncube.
He also gave his opinion on the leadership qualities of Finance Minister Tendai Biti who doubles up as the MDC-T secretary general and the party’s spokesman, Nelson Chamisa, exposure analysts said would have some sizeable impact on the country’s political landscape.
In his confidential diplomatic cables, Dell made some disparaging comments on President Mugabe, labelling him ruthless, adding that “he is fundamentally hampered by several factors: his belief in his own infallibility and his obsessive focus on the past as justification for everything in the present and future.”
But he was quick to add that: “To give him his due, he is a brilliant tactician.”
However, it’s Dell’s perception on Prime Minister Tsvangirai that analysts say would provide ZANU-PF with election campaign fodder as the country braces for fresh polls to bring finality to the shaky government of national unity (GNU).
While mentioning that the premier was a democrat and a brave man, probably for standing up against President Mugabe and ZANU-PF, Dell viewed him as a flawed figure, “not readily open to advice, indecisive and with questionable judgment.”
Dell added: “He (Tsvangirai) is an indispensable element for opposition success but possibly an albatross around their necks once in power. In short, Zimbabwe needs him but should not rely on his executive abilities to lead the country’s recovery.”
Analysts said Dell’s comments have come as a god-send for ZANU-PF seeking to rid of the popular former trade unionist and his political formation that nearly pulled the carpet under its feet in the harmonised polls in 2008, leading to the formation of the GNU President Mugabe says he is very uncomfortable to be part of.
While Dell compared Tsvangirai to Lech Walesa, the Poland democracy leader, some critics view him as more like Hamid Karzai, the Afghanistan President.
Like the Afghan leader, Tsvangirai is seen as a deeply flawed politician, whose success is nonetheless essential to the interest of the US and still offers a better alternative to the regime he is fighting.
The analysts said ZANU-PF would now view this leakage as outright evidence of the vested interests of the US in Zimbabwean politics.
ZANU-PF’s spin doctors and creative directors, added analysts, would be busy in the studio developing campaign messages and onslaught based on the WikiLeaks contents.
Charles Mangongera, a Harare-based analyst, said ZANU-PF hardliners were likely to push for hardening of positions based on what they consider to be American interference in the internal affairs of the country.
“Following the leaks, ZANU-PF has already upped the tempo of its anti-Western rhetoric in the public media and we are likely to see this persisting even up to the period of the elections next year,” said Mangongera.
“I think it is quite ominous as it sets the pace for an emotionally charged election campaign that is likely to be accompanied by widespread violence and intimidation by ZANU-PF supporters. ZANU-PF will also use the leaks to portray themselves as a victim of a broader Western regime change agenda and this will continue to be used to cloud issues for (South African President Jacob) Zuma and SADC as they seek a lasting solution to the Zimbabwean crisis,” he added.
Trevor Maisiri, an analyst with a Harare-based political think-tank, said the leaks, which were unflattering to the premier were a “penalty kick” for ZANU-PF as elections beckoned.
“It’s too much of a tempting leakage for ZANU-PF to ignore it and therefore let it flow to waste. In fact this leak may actually have come at an opportune time for ZANU-PF to really capitalise on its probable inclusion in their campaign strategy,” said Maisiri.
Maisiri said it would not be surprising for ZANU-PF to also use the leaks as further evidence within the SADC community and landscape to prop-up all the other liberation parties to stand against the MDC formations as they will be intimated as subjects of the West.
“In that regard we are likely to see such influence go beyond just the liberation parties but maybe the bedrock upon which the SADC institution begins to deride any attempts by the MDC formations to seek redress on the Zimbabwean crisis.
“SADC will not come outright in scoffing at the MDC formations but will do so diplomatically most probably by further slowing down on whatever else is adjudged to be advantageous to the MDC,” added Maisiri.
While the MDC-T and its leader were not taking the leakage seriously as there was nothing revealed in the leakage that gives any definite existence of formal agreements and strategic engagement with the US, there is a general consensus the leaks would also change the perception of many in ZANU-PF and outside that the anti-West message is not just for propaganda propulsion but may be a reality.
Maisiri noted that Dell presented Chamisa and Biti as some of the only worthy leaders in the structures of the party.
He said such American perception implied to the MDC that the Americans were not permanent friends but sought partnerships “that are only as good as delivering whatever they are seeking in Zimbabwean politics. Dell’s remarks also go further to actually look at the prospects of their working relationship with the MDC should the party win elections.
Dell expresses a pungent need to find political partners who would otherwise work in favour of the Americans once they become the Zimbabwean governmental authority. This must be a great revelation to the MDC formations, if at all they had never seen things that way.”
Dell also portrays Welshman Ncube as divisive and Arthur Mutambara as someone who is doing “too little thinking about real issues”.
In that regard, analysts note, the MDC-M may not really be a party that the US may be willing to work with or support.
This therefore leaves three options; either the US may focus on enhancing the capacity of the MDC-T in order to bring them to a level acceptable to the Americans or they may then support other serious political parties that are not the MDC-T, MDC-M or ZANU-PF or they may influence the emergence of another political party with the capacity, logic and preference that they are more comfortable with.
Tapera Kapuya, an Australian-based Zimbabwean analyst, agreed that the cables were ready fodder for President Mugabe and ZANU-PF’s propaganda.
“But the impact of these cables on grassroots supporters is untested and likely to be very minimal. Zimbabweans have seen a spectre of what the MDC can be able to deliver once in government: lower inflation, economic revival, functional schools and health care system, among other things. These are the main drivers of mass local political opinion towards parties.
“But the same cannot be said for the middle class elites whose fascination on theory exists. With this section of the population, there might be consternation.
“This section is politically important in that it represents the nation's critical mass for whom intellectual conversation and contestation over national policy happens,” he said.
Kapuya also agreed that the impact on the region and in Africa might be dire for the MDC-T and Zimbabwe’s democracy movement.
“Already, we are seeing an increase in the number of countries suffering democracy set-backs for Zimbabwe to become the country of critical emergency focus. The cables worsen matters in that they are ammunition for (President) Mugabe and his party in confirming his and his party’s fears, and the fears of his peers in the region, about the role of the US in the region and continent.
“That said, the cables are a test on MDC’s capacity to wade off international criticism and navigate potentially damaging diplomatic relations. If there was a moment for it to qualify itself and the legitimacy of its struggle to end ZANU-PF’s dominance in Zimbabwe, it is now. “The party should, variously, assert its potentialities in contesting state power for its own sake,” he added.
Takura Zhangazha, another independent analyst said ZANU-PF was only too happy to read the leaked diplomatic cables on Zimbabwe and would use it for propaganda purposes.
“But the MDC T will attempt as far as is possible to ignore these cables because of fear of offending the American government. The MDC-M will not have a coherent response but it will be about personal leaders and their individuated responses to the same,” said Zhangazha.
Writing in the United Kingdom-based Guardian newspaper, columnists Petina Gappah said:
“The reality is that Tsvangirai has always been a protest choice, and not a real one.”
“There is no question at all that Tsvangirai is a brave man, a decent human being, and from all accounts, a likeable one. But his actions as MDC leader have also revealed him to be all the things Dell said.
“Tsvangirai encapsulates the dilemma of the revolution donated from abroad; for the West, he raises the question of what to do about a pro-democracy leader who is not at all that he should be, but presents the best alternative to the regime it is fighting.”
As Washington has been forced to shake-up embassies around the world after the leakages, time will tell of their impact on Zimbabwe’s politics as the country slowly but surely trudges towards a fresh plebiscite.
No comments:
Post a Comment